Cost Changes and Policy Impacts on the Global New Energy Battery Industry Chain in 2026

  The year 2026 marks a profound structural turning point for the global new energy battery industrial chain. The previous single-cost-advantage model relying on "Made in China, Exported Globally" is facing the resonance of threefold pressures: raw material prices rebounded markedly at the end of 2025; domestic anti-involution policies have proactively squeezed profit margins; and the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has entered the substantive charging phase, raising carbon compliance costs. This inflection point signifies that the dominant factor driving the decline in battery system costs is shifting from raw material price fluctuations to manufacturing technological innovation and the maturation of the recycling system, while policy-driven supply chain regionalization will partially offset the cost reduction benefits brought by large-scale production.

  Policies have become the strongest external force reshaping the global industrial chain landscape. The EU CBAM and battery regulations have systematically raised the overall cost threshold for Chinese battery products to enter the European market, forcing enterprises to deploy production capacity within Europe or adjacent regions. Meanwhile, domestic anti-involution policies such as the cancellation of export tax rebates have accelerated industry consolidation and guided resources to converge toward leading enterprises with cutting-edge technologies.

  Against this backdrop, the new energy storage market has become a key strategic buffer for absorbing production capacity and incubating next-generation technologies, as the capacity tariff mechanism delivers stable returns with an internal rate of return (IRR) of approximately 8%-12%.

  Chinese enterprises need to adopt a development strategy featuring the parallel advancement of a "dual-track technology layout" and a "dual-cycle production capacity pattern". The key to success lies in rapidly upgrading competitive thinking from pure cost leadership to building comprehensive cost advantages and systematic compliance capabilities. This includes establishing a full-chain carbon data system, accelerating the launch of overseas compliant production capacity, cultivating in-depth development of the domestic energy storage market, and fostering diversified technological routes. This report systematically analyzes the cost change mechanism, policy impact paths, and specific coping strategies amid this transformation process.